Authors: Toreti ; Andrea ; A. Belward ; I. Perez‐Dominguez ; G. Naumann ; J. Luterbacher ; O. Cronie ; L. Seguini ; G. Manfron ; R. Lopez-Lozano ; B. Baruth ; M. van den Berg ; F. Dentener ; A. Ceglar ; T. Chatzopoulos ; M. Zampieri
Temperature and precipitation are the most important factors responsible for agricultural productivity variations. In 2018 spring/summer growing season, Europe experienced concurrent anomalies of both. Drought conditions in central and northern Europe caused yield reductions up to 50% for the main crops, yet wet conditions in southern Europe saw yield gains up to 34%, both with respect to the previous 5‐years' mean. Based on the analysis of documentary and natural proxy based seasonal paleoclimate reconstructions for the past half millennium, we show that the 2018 combination of climatic anomalies in Europe was unique. The water seesaw, a marked dipole of negative water anomalies in central Europe and positive ones in southern Europe, distinguished 2018 from the five previous similar droughts since 1976. Model simulations reproduce the 2018 European water seesaw in only four years out of 875 years in historical runs and projections. Future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario show that 2018‐like temperature and rainfall conditions, favourable to crop growth, will occur less frequent in southern Europe. In contrast, in central Europe high‐end emission scenario climate projections show that droughts as intense as 2018 could become a common occurrence as early as 2043. Whilst integrated European and global agricultural markets limited agro‐economic shocks caused by 2018's extremes, there is an urgent need for adaptation strategies for European agriculture to consider futures without the benefits of any water seesaw.
Authors: Meroni, Michelen; Fasbender, Dominique; Lopez-Lozano, Raul; Migliavacca, Mirco
The application of detailed process-oriented simulation models for gross primary production (GPP) estimation is constrained by the scarcity of the data needed for their parametrization. In this manuscript, we present the development and test of the assimilation of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) observations into a simple process-based model driven by basic meteorological variables (i.e., global radiation, temperature, precipitation and reference evapotranspiration, all from global circulation models of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The model is run at daily time-step using meteorological forcing and provides estimates of GPP and LAI, the latter used to simulate MODIS NDVI though the coupling with the radiative transfer model PROSAIL5B. Modelled GPP is compared with the remote sensing-driven MODIS GPP product (MOD17) and the quality of both estimates are assessed against GPP from European eddy covariance flux sites over crops and grasslands. Model performances in GPP estimation (R² = 0.67, RMSE = 2.45 gC m⁻² d⁻¹, MBE = -0.16 gC m⁻² d⁻¹) were shown to outperform those of MOD17 for the investigated sites (R2 = 0.53, RMSE = 3.15 gC m⁻² d⁻¹, MBE = -1.08 gC m⁻² d⁻¹).
Authors: Yan Guangjian; Hu Ronghai; Luo Jinghui; Marie, Weiss; Jiang Hailan; Mu Xihan; Xie Donghui; Zhang Wuming
Leaf area index (LAI) is a key parameter of vegetation structure in the fields of agriculture, forestry, and ecology. Optical indirect methods based on the Beer-Lambert law are widely adopted in numerous fields given their high efficiency and feasibility for LAI estimation. These methods have undergone considerable progress in the past decades, thereby making them operational in ground-based LAI measurement and even in airborne estimation. However, several challenges remain, given the requirement of increasing accuracy and new applications. Clumping effect correction attained significant progress for continuous canopies with non-randomly disturbed leaves while non-continuous canopies are rarely studied. Convenient and operational measurement of leaf angle distribution and woody components is lacked. Accurate and comprehensive validations are still very difficult due to the limitations of direct measurement. The introduction of active laser scanning technology is a driving force for addressing several challenges, but its three-dimensional information has not been fully explored and utilized. In order to update the general knowledge and identify the possible error source, this study comprehensively reviews the temporal development, theoretical framework, and issues of indirect LAI measurement, followed by current methods, instruments, and platforms. Latest methods and instruments are introduced and compared to traditional ones. Current challenges, recent advances, and future perspectives are discussed to provide recommendations for further research.
This study assesses crop residues in the EU from major crops using empirical models to predict crop residues from yield statistics; furthermore it analyses the inter‐annual variability of those estimates over the period 1998‐2015, identifying its main drivers across Europe. The models were constructed based on an exhaustive collection of experimental data from scientific papers for the crops: wheat, barley, rye, oats, triticale, rice, maize, sorghum, rapeseed, sunflower, soybean, potato and sugarbeet. We discuss the assumptions on the relationship between yield and the harvest index, adopted by previous studies, to interpret the experimental data, quantify the uncertainties of these models, and establish the premises to implement them at regional scale –i.e NUTS level 3– within the EU. To cope this, we created a consolidated sub‐national statistical data along with an algorithm able to aggregate (figures are provided at country level) and disaggregate (production at 25 km grid is provided as supplementary material) estimates. The total lignocellulosic biomass production in the EU28 over the review period, according to our models, is 419 Mt, from which wheat is the major contributor (155 Mt). Our results show that maize and rapeseed are the two crops with the highest residue yield, respectively 8.9 and 8.6 t ha‐1. The spatial analysis revealed that these three crops, which, according to our results, are feedstocks highly suitable a priori for second generation biofuels in the EU and are unevenly distributed across Europe. Weather fluctuation was identified as the major driver in residue production from cereals, while, in the case of starch crops and oilseeds – which are predominant in northern Europe – corresponded to the marked production trend likely influenced by the agricultural policies and agro‐management over the review period. Additionally, our study highlights the limitation of such empirical models in quantifying lignocellulosic biomass in the EU.
Authors: Madec, Simon; Jin, Xiuliang; Lu, Hao; De Solan, Benoit; Liu, Shouyang; Duyme, Florent; Heritier, Emmanuelle; Baret, Frederic
Wheat ear density estimation is an appealing trait for plant breeders. Current manual counting is tedious and inefficient. In this study we investigated the potential of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to provide accurate ear density using nadir high spatial resolution RGB images. Two different approaches were investigated, either using the Faster-RCNN state-of-the-art object detector or with the TasselNet local count regression network. Both approaches performed very well (rRMSE approximate to 6%) when applied over the same conditions as those prevailing for the calibration of the models. However, Faster-RCNN was more robust when applied to a dataset acquired at a later stage with ears and background showing a different aspect because of the higher maturity of the plants. Optimal spatial resolution for Faster-RCNN was around 0.3 mm allowing to acquire RGB images from a UAV platform for high-throughput phenotyping of large experiments. Comparison of the estimated ear density with in-situ manual counting shows reasonable agreement considering the relatively small sampling area used for both methods. Faster-RCNN and in-situ counting had high and similar heritability (H-2 approximate to 85%), demonstrating that ear density derived from high resolution RGB imagery could replace the traditional counting method.
Authors: Brede, Benjamin; Gastellu-Etchegorry, Jean-Philippe; Lauret, Nicolas; Baret, Frederic; Clevers, Jan G. P. W.; Verbesselt, Jan; Herold, Martin
Land Surface Phenology (LSP) and Leaf Area Index (LAI) are important variables that describe the photosynthetically active phase and capacity of vegetation. Both are derived on the global scale from optical satellite sensors and require robust validation based on in situ sensors at high temporal resolution. This study assesses the PAI Autonomous System from Transmittance Sensors at 57 degrees (PASTiS-57) instrument as a low-cost transmittance sensor for simultaneous monitoring of LSP and LAI in forest ecosystems. In a field experiment, spring leaf flush and autumn senescence in a Dutch beech forest were observed with PASTiS-57 and illumination independent, multi-temporal Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) measurements in five plots. Both time series agreed to less than a day in Start Of Season (SOS) and End Of Season (EOS). LAI magnitude was strongly correlated with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.98. PASTiS-57 summer and winter LAI were on average 0.41 m(2)m(-2) and 1.43 m(2)m(-2) lower than TLS. This can be explained by previously reported overestimation of TLS. Additionally, PASTiS-57 was implemented in the Discrete Anisotropic Radiative Transfer (DART) Radiative Transfer Model (RTM) model for sensitivity analysis. This confirmed the robustness of the retrieval with respect to non-structural canopy properties and illumination conditions. Generally, PASTiS-57 fulfilled the CEOS LPV requirement of 20% accuracy in LAI for a wide range of biochemical and illumination conditions for turbid medium canopies. However, canopy non-randomness in discrete tree models led to strong biases. Overall, PASTiS-57 demonstrated the potential of autonomous devices for monitoring of phenology and LAI at daily temporal resolution as required for validation of satellite products that can be derived from ESA Copernicus' optical missions, Sentinel-2 and -3.
Authors: Roujean, Jean-Louis; Olioso, Albert; Ceschia, Eric; Hagolle, Olivier; Weiss, Marie
Satellite Sentinel-2 offers a global coverage of the Earth at the frequency of a few days with pixel size ranging from 10 to 20 meters. Such spatio-temporal resolution fosters an advanced research in agriculture. Accounting for BRDF (Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function) information is required both for target monitoring and surface albedo estimate. BRDF sampling being limited from HR (High Resolution) sensors, the added-value of the BRDF 300m from PROBA-V instrument is assessed. Results are shown for the seasonal cycles 2016 and 2017 using parameterized and detailed radiation transfer models. The validation is carried on for anchor ICOS (Integrated Carbon Observation System) stations located on the French territory.
Authors: Brede, Benjamin; Gastellu-Etchegorry, Jean-Philippe; Lauret, Nicolas; Baret, Frederic; Clevers, Jan G. P. W.; Verbesselt, Jan; Herold, Martin
Land Surface Phenology (LSP) and Leaf Area Index (LAI) are important variables that describe the photosynthetically active phase and capacity of vegetation. Both are derived on the global scale from optical satellite sensors and require robust validation based on in situ sensors at high temporal resolution. This study assesses the PAI Autonomous System from Transmittance Sensors at 57 degrees (PASTiS-57) instrument as a low-cost transmittance sensor for simultaneous monitoring of LSP and LAI in forest ecosystems. In a field experiment, spring leaf flush and autumn senescence in a Dutch beech forest were observed with PASTiS-57 and illumination independent, multi-temporal Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) measurements in five plots. Both time series agreed to less than a day in Start Of Season (SOS) and End Of Season (EOS). LAI magnitude was strongly correlated with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.98. PASTiS-57 summer and winter LAI were on average 0.41 m(2)m(-2) and 1.43 m(2)m(-2) lower than TLS. This can be explained by previously reported overestimation of TLS. Additionally, PASTiS-57 was implemented in the Discrete Anisotropic Radiative Transfer (DART) Radiative Transfer Model (RTM) model for sensitivity analysis. This confirmed the robustness of the retrieval with respect to non-structural canopy properties and illumination conditions. Generally, PASTiS-57 fulfilled the CEOS LPV requirement of 20% accuracy in LAI for a wide range of biochemical and illumination conditions for turbid medium canopies. However, canopy non-randomness in discrete tree models led to strong biases. Overall, PASTiS-57 demonstrated the potential of autonomous devices for monitoring of phenology and LAI at daily temporal resolution as required for validation of satellite products that can be derived from ESA Copernicus' optical missions, Sentinel-2 and -3.
Authors: Liu, Shouyang; Baret, Frederic; Andrieu, Bruno; Abichou, Mariem; Allard, Denis; de Solan, Benoit; Burger, Philippe
This work investigates the spatial distribution of wheat plants and its consequences on the canopy structure. A set of RGB images were taken from nadir on a total 14 plots showing a range of sowing densities, cultivars and environmental conditions. The coordinates of the plants were extracted from RGB images. Results show that the distance between-plants along the row follows a gamma distribution law, with no dependency between the distances. Conversely, the positions of the plants across rows follow a Gaussian distribution, with strongly interdependent. A statistical model was thus proposed to simulate the possible plant distribution pattern. Through coupling the statistical model with 3D Adel-Wheat model, the impact of the plant distribution pattern on canopy structure was evaluated using emerging properties such as the green fraction (GF) that drives the light interception efficiency. Simulations showed that the effects varied over different development stages but were generally small. For the intermediate development stages, large zenithal angles and directions parallel to the row, the deviations across the row of plant position increased the GF by more than 0.1. These results were obtained with a wheat functional-structural model that does not account for the capacity of plants to adapt to their local environment. Nevertheless, our work will extend the potential of functional-structural plant models to estimate the optimal distribution pattern for given conditions and subsequently guide the field management practices.
Authors: Jiang, Jingyi; Comar, Alexis; Burger, Philippe; Bancal, Pierre; Weiss, Marie; Baret, Frederic
Leaf biochemical composition corresponds to traits related to the plant state and its functioning. This study puts the emphasis on the main leaf absorbers: chlorophyll a and b (C-ab), carotenoids (C-c), water (C-w) and dry mater (C-m) contents. Two main approaches were used to estimate [C-ab, C-c, C-w, C-m] in a non-destructive way using spectral measurements. The first one consists in building empirical relationships from experimental datasets using either the raw reflectances or their combination into vegetation indices (VI). The second one relies on the inversion of physically based models of leaf optical properties. Although the first approach is commonly used, the calibration of the empirical relationships is generally conducted over a limited dataset. Consequently, poor predictions may be observed when applying them on cases that are not represented in the training dataset, i.e. when dealing with different species, genotypes or under contrasted environmental conditions. The retrieval performances of the selected VIs were thus compared to the ones of four PROSPECT model versions based on reflectance data acquired at two phenological stages, over six wheat genotypes grown under three different nitrogen fertilizations and two sowing density modalities. Leaf reflectance was measured in the lab with a spectrophotometer equipped with an integrating sphere, the leaf being placed in front of a white Teflon background to increase the sensitivity to leaf biochemical composition. Destructive measurements of [Cab, C-c, C-w, C-m] were performed concurrently.
Results: The destructive measurements demonstrated that the carotenoid, C-c, and chlorophyll, C-ab, contents were strongly correlated (r(2) = 0.91). The sum of C-ab and C-c, i.e. the total chlorophyllian pigment content, C-abc, was therefore used in this study. When inverting the PROSPECT model, accounting for the brown pigment content, C-bp, was necessary when leaves started to senesce. The values of C-abc and C-w were well estimated (r(2) = 0.81 and r(2) = 0.88 respectively) while the dry matter content, C-m, was poorly estimated (r(2) = 0.00). Retrieval of C-w from PROSPECT versions was only slightly biased, while substantial overestimation of C-abc was observed. The ranking between estimated values of C-abc and C-w from the several PROSPECT versions and that derived using the VIs were similar to the ranking observed over the destructively measured values of C-abc and C-w.
Conclusions: PROSPECT model inversion and empirical VI approach provide similar retrieval performances and are useful methods to estimate leaf biochemical composition from spectral measurements. However, the PROSPECT model inversion gives potential access to additional traits on surface reflectivity and leaf internal structure. This study suggests that non-destructive estimation of leaf chlorophyll and water contents is a relevant method to provide leaf traits with relatively high throughput.